Evaluating the Success and Significance of the Tumaini Initiative
The Tumaini Initiative presents a critical opportunity to establish lasting peace and political stability in South Sudan. With a history marred by persistent violence, political instability, and economic hardship, it is essential that this initiative is assessed using clear, results-driven criteria. The South Sudanese people do not seek another symbolic on-paper agreement; they demand a transformative and lasting solution that addresses governance, security, and economic challenges. However, there is a real risk that political actors could squander this historic moment by focusing on irrelevant issues of power sharing while ignoring fundamental concerns of the people. This article outlines eight key criteria to evaluate the Tumaini Initiative, ensuring that it aligns with the aspirations and expectations of the South Sudanese people.
- Ending Persistent Political and Communal Violence
A fundamental measure of success is the initiative’s ability to break the cycle of political and communal violence that has plagued South Sudan for years. The agreement must promote national reconciliation, disarm militias, and ensure that conflicts are resolved through political and legal processes rather than violence. It should address the root causes of insecurity, including ethnic divisions, violent customary practices, and resource conflicts, while fostering inclusive governance structures that prevent a resurgence of violence. To achieve this, the initiative must be broad-based and inclusive, ensuring the participation of all armed opposition groups. Any obstacles to participation must be addressed by the government and mediators. The initiative would be deemed unsuccessful if violent conflicts persist after its signing.
- Addressing Leadership Failures and Government Paralysis
South Sudan faces a monumental leadership crisis characterized by violent power struggles, political deadlock, and governmental paralysis. A key criterion for evaluating the Tumaini Initiative is its ability to break political stalemates, end perpetual transitional governments, prevent autocratic rule, and establish effective conflict-resolution mechanisms within political institutions. A government that is transparent, functional, and committed to national unity is essential for long-term stability. If the initiative merely replicates another transitional government without addressing leadership failures, it will be considered a failure.
- Establishing an Apolitical and Representative National Security Framework
In South Sudan’s political landscape, private militias often dictate power dynamics, making political violence the default mode of negotiation. The Tumaini Initiative must dismantle the privatization of security forces by restructuring the national security architecture into an inclusive, professional, and apolitical force. The military, police, and intelligence services must serve national interests rather than individual leaders or factions. Specifically, the initiative should abolish the Presidential Guard unit and repurpose the National Security Service to ensure a security sector that upholds democratic processes rather than resorting to force.
- Dismantling Economic Cartels and Reviving Economic Production
Economic cartels and corrupt networks have severely hindered South Sudan’s development, monopolizing resources and stifling economic opportunities. These groups, often backed by political elites, have contributed to widespread poverty and institutionalized corruption. The Tumaini Initiative must prioritize economic reforms that foster fair competition, increase transparency in resource management, and create employment opportunities. A functional budgetary process must be restored, and key industries such as agriculture, oil production, and services should be revitalized to lay the foundation for economic independence and prosperity. The initiative would be considered a failure if it does not lead to public financial management integrity, economic revival, and timely payment of livable wages for public employees.
- Re-establishing the State Based on Principles of Self-Governance
For a peace initiative to be truly effective, it must address governance structures. The National Dialogue has emphasized the need for self-governance and decentralized administration. The Tumaini Initiative should uphold these principles by advocating for a governance structure that grants greater autonomy to the states while ensuring national cohesion. Although the R-ARCSS provides for a federal system, little progress has been made toward its implementation. The initiative must prioritize the immediate realization of federalism to avoid falling short of its objectives.
- Clarity on Land Ownership, Tenure, and Administration
Land is the most treasured asset of the people of South Sudan, and they have long fought to defend it from colonial exploitation. During the South Sudan National Dialogue, land ownership, tenure, and administration emerged as highly debated topics. Article 170 (1) of the Constitution states, “All land in South Sudan is owned by the people of South Sudan, and its usage shall be regulated by the government in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution and the law.” However, this provision remains contentious, as many argue that land ownership belongs to indigenous communities rather than the broadly defined and ambiguous term ‘the people of South Sudan.’ The lack of specificity, coupled with a strong emphasis on government regulation, raises concerns—particularly given the government’s history of corruption and the potential threat of land dispossession. The Tumaini Initiative must provide clarity and concrete solutions on land ownership to ensure the protection of community rights. Failure to do so would be a grave injustice to the people of South Sudan.
- Anchoring Political Agreements in a Constitutional Process Leading to Elections
Rather than forming another transitional government destined for failure, the Tumaini Initiative must lead to a constitutional agreement that paves the way for democratic transition through a negotiated constitution. This agreement should guide South Sudan toward an elected federal government that will ultimately draft a permanent constitution. Establishing a legitimate and democratically elected government is essential for long-term stability and governance.
- A Comprehensive and Simultaneous Peaceful Civil Disarmament
The people of South Sudan, as expressed through the South Sudan National Dialogue, strongly advocate for a nationwide civilian disarmament process. The widespread possession of small arms and machine guns among civilians poses a major threat to internal unity and social stability. To establish effective security control, the government must restrict the flow of weapons to civilians, in coordination with broader security sector reforms. However, for disarmament to be successful, the national security system must be trusted and capable of protecting all citizens. Without public confidence in security forces, any efforts to disarm civilians peacefully will likely fail. The Tumaini Initiative would be inadequate if it does not prioritize civilian disarmament and implement strict measures to prevent weapons from freely circulating among the civilian population.
Conclusion
For the Tumaini Initiative to be considered successful and significant, it must fulfill these eight essential criteria. A temporary peace agreement that fails to address governance, security, and economic reform is insufficient. The people of South Sudan deserve more than mere promises—they deserve concrete actions that will secure a peaceful, stable, and prosperous future for generations to come.
The writer, Abraham A. Awolich, is a member of the People’s Coalition for Civil Action (PCCA) and a PhD student in Sustainable Development Policy, Economics, and Governance at the University of Vermont. He is a Gund and L4E Fellow. He can be reached at aawolich@uvm.edu.
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Lakes State Media are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Lakes State Media.
