Tumaini is a must sign agreement, provided it is Harmonized with RARCSS – my humble viewpoint

By: Ateny Wek Ateny

“In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends” Martin Luther King Jnr.

I wrote an article on June 22nd -24th, 2024 in part 1 &2, entitled “Is the Tumaini Initiative attempting to create eight Presidents disguised as National Leadership Council (NLC), or Is it Revitalizing, the Revitalized Peace Agreement”. However, I was taken for the anti-Tumaini Initiative, which I was not. I have no reason to be against genuine peace. I was being analytical to the draft Tumaini’s Agreement.

In fact, I do not have any problem with the entire Tumaini Initiative— since nobody is a friend of wars. I had some reservations on certain individuals within Tumaini, but that is not a recipe for rejecting the agreement that brings permanent peace agreement to South Sudan. After all, I have no position in the government to fear losing it in favor of Tumaini’s signatories.

My analysis of the draft Tumaini Peace initiative’s Agreement were based on the factual situation available as of the time in June 2024. Now, the facts available about the importance of the Revitalized Peace Agreement National Unity’s government signing the Tumaini Agreement is outmaneuvering the reasons for not signing it. Whatever the Tumaini is posing as a threat to those holding government positions, it must be signed regardless.

With that said, it must be noted that any opportunity which may be available to reject signing Tumaini doesn’t seem to favor the current government. Unless it is harmonized with the RARCSS, the Tumaini is a thorn in the flesh. It has started as an initiative of the President Salva Kiir Mayardit asking his counterpart Dr. William Ruto to mediate between the government and the holdout groups, but it has taken another turn. President Ruto did not take it lightly. The author would like to examine possible scenarios, if the government drags its feet.

1. President Ruto has sold the Tumaini Initiative to the international community and the region. Unlike RARCSS, the Tumaini is a darling of Troika, USA, UK, EU, and China etc. and it is not easy to renege from it:
2. Kenya is Western world friendly, so it has used its closeness with the Western powers to be entrenched Tumaini. If, there is a choice between Kenya and South Sudan in the Western powers’ eyes, Kenya would be their better choice. In that Kenya to play down its internal problems, would rather save its skin and sell us for cheap.
3. Unlike like Pan-Africanist Ugandan Presidents; Yuweri Museveni, or Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahamed, Dr. William Ruto of Kenya may take his Western World interest seriously. Therefore, he (Ruto) is eager to make Tumaini peace a reality to help him gain global image as a true peace maker in the region. So, ignoring Tumaini may be counterproductive. It is good even with Tumaini, President Kiir will still be in control. Nothing touches his powers to appoint or dismiss.
4. President Kiir, Dr. Riek Machar, and all other RARCSS signatories’ prime duty, must focus on trying to harmonize Tumaini, brings its signatories home, form the transitional government with Tumaini leaders given some positions, and then go for general elections in two years’ time. Otherwise, Ruto will sell them in broad daylight.
5. Finally, while in Juba, the Tumaini leadership must be urged to either join or form their own parties prior to the end of transition so that they are able to join free, fair and credible elections come 2026. Otherwise, reneging on Tumaini, exposes the RARCSS leaders to uncontrollable damage.

It is easier to sign Tumaini than absolute rejection. We all know Tumaini was supposed to have been the annex to the RARCSS. All the would-be signatories of Tumaini with exception of Gen. Paul Malong Awan, were the holdout groups who refused to sign the RARCSS in 2018. So, there should be no gainsaying to believe there were many differences between those who signed and the ones who have not.

Moreover, the leaders of RARCSS have a duty to talk to President William Ruto in his short visit to Juba today November 6th, 2024, about the need to harmonize Tumaini with RARCSS before signing, in an attempt to undo the risk of the former revitalizing the revitalized. Otherwise, rejecting Tumaini does serves Kenya’s interest in cleaning its image on expense of South Sudan. The simple reason for some of RARCSS’s leaders’ skepticism in accepting Tumaini is on the basis of fear of losing some of their men/women positions going to Tumaini. And this is not national interest.

The writer is the former Press Secretary in the Office of the President and the views expressed in this article are his own, devoid of any one influence directly or indirectly. He could be reached by email: atenypiokerwek@gmail.com